Dutch housing market Q3 2026: more choice, but not yet a buyer’s market

Buyers have more room to compare

At the end of the NVM reporting period, 39,001 existing homes were for sale: almost a quarter more than a year earlier. NVM agents sold 41,732 homes, up 0.6% on Q3 2025 (NVM, market information). More choice is becoming available while annual sales remain stable.

For you, that makes comparison more valuable. View several homes within your budget. Ask whether a second viewing is possible and how the sale will be organised. Extra supply can improve your position, but only if it includes suitable alternatives in your neighbourhood and price range.

Slower price growth does not prove a lasting reversal

According to NVM, national selling prices are 1.8% higher than in Q3 2025 and 1.3% lower than in Q2 2026 (NVM, market overview, p. 1).

NVM highlights seasonality and changes in the mix of homes sold. Its reported price changes are weighted by property type and region (NVM/Brainbay, pp. 7 and 31). One negative quarter therefore does not establish a lasting national decline. Nor does the € 503,000 statistic tell you what the home you are viewing is worth.

What does this mean for your bid? Older selling prices may be out of date. Ask your buying agent to look at recent sales of comparable homes, taking floor area, condition and location into account. That grounds your bid in the property you are buying, rather than a national price forecast.

How does competition differ by property type?

Sales above asking price are becoming less common, but the differences remain large. A mid-terrace home and a detached house clearly face different markets. The shares below cover homes sold through NVM agents in Q3 2026 (NVM, market overview, p. 3).

Nationally, selling prices averaged 3.3% above the final asking price, down from 4.6% in Q2 2026 (NVM, market overview, p. 3). The asking price is still a selling strategy: some sellers set it low to attract interest, while others ask more than comparable homes are worth. Consider the estimated property value before deciding how much to offer.

Your region and the home itself matter

Regional differences are large: NVM reports annual price growth of 8.3% in Southwest Drenthe and 0.6% in the Greater Amsterdam region. Property quality is also associated with selling speed. Homes with a high quality score sold in an average of 28 days, compared with 36 days for a low score (NVM, 8 October 2026). That difference relates to multiple property characteristics; it does not show the separate effect of one improvement.

Brainbay’s quality score combines agents’ records, photographs, listing text and the energy label (Brainbay). It cannot replace a building survey. Before bidding on a home that needs work, establish what must be done, its realistic cost and the contingency budget you will need.

Has a home been on the market for a while? Ask the selling agent whether there have been earlier bids, whether the asking price has changed and why the home has not sold. The answers may help you negotiate. Then base your bid on comparable sales and the home’s condition, rather than only its number of days on Funda.

Why CBS reports a different price figure

NVM and CBS measure price changes at different moments: NVM at the signed purchase agreement, CBS/Kadaster at transfer of ownership through the notary. That means they are not looking at the same sales in the same period (NVM/Brainbay, p. 32).

CBS also reports slower annual price growth. The latest monthly figure available on 11 October covers August; regional Q3 2026 figures follow on 22 October (CBS/Kadaster, 22 September 2026).

Both sources therefore show slowing price growth. NVM offers an early view of recent purchase agreements; CBS follows prices at the eventual transfer. The gap between their growth rates is not an additional price decline.

More negotiating room does not mean more borrowing room

Interest rates remain important to your purchase budget. On 11 September, DNB reported that the ECB had increased its policy rate again, to 2.5% (DNB, 2026). That is not the rate in your mortgage offer. Your rate also depends on how the bank assesses the risk of your loan and how many years you fix the rate for (DNB, bank mortgage rates).

For first-time buyers: ask your mortgage adviser to assess what you can borrow and the resulting monthly payments before setting a bidding ceiling. Keep your own funds available for transaction costs, maintenance and surprises. Slower price growth does not make a purchase affordable if the monthly payments are too high.

For existing homeowners: do not automatically budget for the highest sale price you have seen nearby. Consider a lower sale price, a longer sale period and temporary double housing costs. You are buying and selling in the same changing market.

New-build homes offer more choice, but need a different calculation

New-build supply is growing too. NVM agents had approximately 21,500 homes available and sold around 6,000. The median selling price was € 504,000, while the price per square metre rose 4.8% year on year (NVM, new-build market overview).

Do not compare new-build and existing homes only by purchase price. Look at floor area and what is included: finishes, optional extras, outdoor space and the expected completion date. Calculate how long you can afford two sets of housing costs. More projects being available does not automatically make your financing or timing easier.

How to use these figures for your next purchase

The practical interpretation below is SlimBieden’s. These are points to investigate, not predictions of the outcome of an offer.

• Get evidence for the property’s valueAsk your buying agent which comparable homes have sold recently and how differences in floor area, condition and location affect value. An address-specific valuation report can provide an additional estimate. Compare that evidence with the asking price before choosing a bid.
• Ask about the process and level of interestIs there a bid deadline or room to negotiate? Ask about viewings and bids, while recognising that you may not receive all information about competing buyers.
• Make quality part of your budgetAllow for maintenance, energy improvements and owners’ association costs. A low purchase price is not a low total bill if substantial work is needed.
• Set your ceiling in advanceConnect your offer to affordable monthly payments, available savings and a buffer. Consider financing and survey conditions separately; do not waive them simply to outbid competitors.
• Balance a higher bid against your financial roomAsk your mortgage adviser to calculate monthly payments and required savings for two or three offer amounts. Check the buffer you would retain for maintenance and surprises. Then decide how much extra you are willing to pay to improve your chance of buying this home, without exceeding your own ceiling.

More supply gives you room to compare homes and offer amounts more deliberately. National figures help you understand the market. For your final bid, you also need an assessment of that individual home’s value and the competition for that purchase.